REGULATION CONCERNING ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST
CHAPTER ONE
Objective, Scope, Legal Basis, Definitions and Abbreviations
Objective
Article 1 – (1) The objective of this Regulation is to set forth the principles and procedures regarding formation of electricity demand forecasts those constitute the basis for preparation of generation capacity projection together with transmission system 10 year statement, and distribution companies’ investment plans together with distribution system 10 year statement.
Scope
Article 2 – (1) This Regulation covers the principles and procedures to be followed in performing, assessing, updating and approving of demand forecasts in accordance with the demand forecast method, which is determined by distribution companies.
Legal Basis
Article 3 – (1) This Regulation has been issued in compliance with the provisions of the Electricity Market Law no. 4628.
Definitions
Article 4 – (1) For the purposes of interpretation and implementation of this Regulation, the following terms and abbreviations bear the following meanings;
ç) Board: The Energy Market Regulatory Board,
CHAPTER TWO
Principles, Periods of Demand Forecasting, Determination of Method, Data Set
Demand forecasting method and its principles
Article 5 – (1) Distribution company performs or makes someone to perform demand forecasting for its own region by using scientifically and technically proven methods by taking into account peculiarities of concerned distribution region and by considering published official macroeconomic targets, and if deemed necessary by asking the opinions of relevant authorities and institutions.
(2) Making real or legal persons to perform demand forecasting by a distribution company does not remove the distribution company’s responsibility.
The English version of this Regulation is intended to assist interested foreign parties. There may be discrepancies between the Turkish and English versions. In case such discrepancies occur, the Turkish version shall prevail.
Demand forecasting period and scenarios
Article 6 – (1) Demand forecasts are performed annually with a 10 years horizon, on the basis of low, base and high consumption scenarios. The base scenario is taken as the basis for preparation of generation capacity projection and transmission system 10 year statement by TE Aẞ, and of investment plan and distribution system 10 year statement by distribution companies.
Fundamental data set for demand forecasting
Article 7 – (1) Fundamental data set for demand forecasting may be formed from economical, social, demographic, climatic, environmental data and past values of the variable that is to be forecasted, and other regional data that demand forecast model requires.
CHAPTER THREE
Principles, Assessment and Verification of Model
Principles to be considered in demand forecasting
Article 8 – (1) The following principles are considered in formation of the model that is to be used for demand forecasting;
ç) State of being an easy and understandable design,
Assessment and verification of demand forecasting model
Article 9 – (1) Following the formation of the demand forecasting model, the following generally accepted tests in econometrics and statistics literature together with other required tests, which are formed within the framework of chosen different models are performed and subsequently necessary corrections and amendments are made:
The English version of this Regulation is intended to assist interested foreign parties. There may be discrepancies between the Turkish and English versions. In case such discrepancies occur, the Turkish version shall prevail.
ç) Whether the model presents multi co-linearity, heteroscedasticity and successive autocorrelation ,
(2) The confidence interval for employed tests shall not exceed 10%.
CHAPTER FOUR
Results of Demand Forecasts, Reporting and Publishing
Demand forecast results
Article 10 – (1) Demand forecast’s results include;
(2) The information required in subparagraphs (b) and (c) of first paragraph may be produced through use information and foresights those rooted to the results of demand forecasting model.
Demand forecast report
Article 11 – (1) Demand forecast results, together with data set used in demand forecasting, as in the form of a report are presented to the Authority both in written and in magnetic media by end February of each year.
due course to consistency with the principles and procedures laid down in this Regulation, and if deemed appropriate by a Board decision, it is submitted to TE Aẞ by the distribution company within 10 days following the notification of the Authority.
Consolidation of demand forecasts
Article 12 – (1) TE Aẞ consolidates the forecasts of consumers those are directly connected to the transmission system with the demand forecasts results of distribution regions. TE Aẞ, while forming the format of the report to be presented to the Authority, may
The English version of this Regulation is intended to assist interested foreign parties. There may be discrepancies between the Turkish and English versions. In case such discrepancies occur, the Turkish version shall prevail.
ask additional information and document concerning Demand Forecast Report from distribution companies, by declaring the reason behind.
(2) The demand forecasts concluded by TE Aẞ are presented to the Authority by 1 July of each year.
Approval and publishing of demand forecasts
Article 13 – (1) The demand forecasts those concluded and presented to the Authority by TE Aẞ are published on TE Aẞ internet site as in the form tables for each distribution region and as consolidated. If it is not approved by the Board, the demand forecasts are sent to TE Aẞ for reviewing. TE Aẞ presents the revised demand forecasts within one month time following the date of notification.
(2) Demand forecasts are published by 1 October of each year.
Updating of forecast results
Article 14 – (1) Distribution company prepares data set for next coming 10 years period through revision of data set and if required the model or models, by taking into account annual realization of forecasted variable or variables with illustrative variable or variables.
Data supply obligation
Article 15 – (1) Legal entities managing organized industrial zones give the data that is limited with the purpose of performing demand forecasting, which is asked by distribution companies, to relevant distribution company. The distribution company uses this data in performing regional demand forecasting.
Confidentiality
Article 16 – (1) Any distribution company and TE Aẞ cannot use and disclose the information that they gathered under the scope of this Regulation for any other means.
CHAPTER FIVE
Provisional Articles and Final Provisions
Provisional Article 1 – (1) A sample Demand Forecast Report prepared by a distribution company in accordance with the Article 11, together with the data set used in demand forecasting is presented to the Authority once, by 31 August, within the scope of performed preparatory studies before approval of the regional demand forecasts by the Board.
Effectiveness
Article 17 – (1) This Regulation becomes effective on the date of its publication.
Enforcement
Article 18 – (1) This Regulation is enforced by the President of the Energy Market Regulatory Authority.
The English version of this Regulation is intended to assist interested foreign parties. There may be discrepancies between the Turkish and English versions. In case such discrepancies occur, the Turkish version shall prevail.